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EWMA Forecasting & Operational Excellence Dashboard
Unified operational intelligence dashboard breaking down organizational silos: revenue forecasting, client profitability, FTE capacity planning, and freelancer cost optimization in one source of truth.
4 Integrated
Dashboard Views
93% → 71%
Forecast Confidence
6m & 12m
Time Horizons
4 Domains
Data Sources Unified
The Challenge
Most organizations operate with critical financial blindspots: Finance sees revenue and costs in isolation. Operations knows FTE capacity and freelancer spend separately. Leadership receives static monthly reports weeks after data closes. Without integrated visibility across revenue, margin, capacity, and cost—decision-making lags reality by 4-6 weeks. Furthermore, without accurate demand forecasting, organizations can't plan hiring, resource allocation, or cash flow with confidence. The core problem: when revenue, cost, utilization, and margin live in separate systems, nobody sees the relationships—Which clients are driving margin decline? Is FTE capacity matched to pipeline? What's the true profitability impact of external spend?
Technical & Strategic Approach
- Architected unified 4-view dashboard addressing specific stakeholder questions: CFO sees revenue/margin trajectory; VP Sales identifies at-risk clients; Head of People Ops plans FTE capacity; CFO tracks freelancer spend efficiency
- Implemented server-side EWMA forecasting engine (α=0.2, trend decay 0.98) computing 6 or 12-month forecasts with confidence degradation (93%→87%→78%→71%) reflecting real forecasting uncertainty limits
- Designed 4-table Neon PostgreSQL schema integrating financial actuals (P&L), client profitability, FTE resources, and freelancer spending—breaking down traditionally siloed systems
- Built 5 secure API endpoints with rate limiting, HTTP caching, and input validation, feeding React component architecture with 4 independent tabs (Overview, Client View, FTE View, Freelancer View)
- Created time horizon flexibility: users toggle between 6+6 (tactical planning) and 6+12 (strategic planning) models with same data, different confidence thresholds
- Integrated Recharts visualization with confidence-weighted display—margins preserved in forecasts, cost composition visible, operational patterns revealed through trend analysis
Results & Outcomes
Transformed fragmented operational data into C-suite decision-making tool. Leaders now see: revenue decay patterns (sustainable growth vs. temporary spikes); margin pressure through cost-as-% trends; resource mismatch between forecast needs and current utilization; client concentration risk in top 10 accounts. Enables proactive intervention weeks before crises—when addressing problems is still possible. Decision speed improves from 4-6 weeks (traditional monthly close) to real-time drill-down. Organizations shift from operational reactivity (discover problem→react with cuts) to proactivity (real-time visibility→predict→intervene).
Tech Stack
TypeScript
React
Next.js
EWMA Forecasting
PostgreSQL (Neon)
Recharts
API Security (Rate Limiting, Caching)
Statistical Analysis
Deep Dive into the Data
Explore interactive dashboards, detailed analysis, and data visualizations
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